- Russia intervenes abroad
- Downsizing of the United Kingdom
- North Korea-US rapprochement fails
- Italy gains eurosceptic government
- India and Pakistan go to war
- Conflict in the South China Sea
- Afghanistan peace process fails
- Collapse of Iran nuclear deal
- Turkey orientates away from West
- Algeria disorderly transition
Welcome to the Global Risk Monitor (GRM).
We list our global risks by impact and likelihood. You can use the slider at the base of the screen to move forward and backward in time, including what the risk outlook will be in one year's time.
To access the in-depth analysis of each risk, click on it - you will be asked to log in if automatic login is not enabled for you.
If you previously had a valid login to our GSPM product, then you may reuse this. You can then access all the features in Oxford Analytica’s risk monitoring service.
If you would like to request trial access to the GRM, please fill in our Trial Request form. If you aren't sure if you have a valid login, please contact us using the form on this page.
The Overview tab provides a snapshot of our analysis. The sections on this tab are all expandable -- including the risk description, which offers a rigorous definition of the risks we are monitoring.
The Analysis tab displays our risk factors and mitigating factors -- the things that make the risk more or less likely to transpire in year ahead. The balance between these factors determines our assessment of the risk’s likelihood.
The Impact tab provides our analysis of how geopolitics, investor interests and the global economy would be affected if the risk transpires.
The History tab allows you to track risks over time. Click on or hover over any of the data points in the history graphic for an explanation of how and why we have changed our risk assessments. You can view the history in graphical or text view, and choose to see only the analysis in which we changed our assessment of the risk, or all related analysis.
The Contact tab on each risk allows you to reach out to the responsible analyst on the GRM team. We look forward to working with you.
Customised Risk Monitor
Tailor our service to identify, assess, and track risks pertinent to your strategy and operations through our Customised Risk Monitor